Portimonense vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018
Segunda Liga · Round 25
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Portimonense44%
Sporting CP B30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portimonense creates 26% more chances
Season form · 39 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Portimonense ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Portimonense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches
Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Portimonense attack 1.44 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40
Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Portimonense defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Portimonense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.3 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
4 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
FC Porto B
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Chaves
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia LourosaSporting CP B
PenafielPortimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os BelenensesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Portimonense host Sporting CP B on Sunday, 7 March 2027 at 16:00. The match is part of the Segunda Liga 2018/2019 season.
Portimonense vs Sporting CP B — Match Preview
Portimonense face Sporting CP B on March 7, 2027 in this Segunda Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.