Portimonense 2–1 Penafiel: Result & Stats

Portimonense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Penafiel

S. Lobato 62'

T. Monteiro 9'

R. Alcaina 33'

8/9/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 1Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Portimonense39%

×Draw27%

Penafiel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortimonenseExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Portimonense

1.33

Penafiel

1.21

Portimonense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 129 away

1.26

creates per match

0.98

1.44

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Portimonense

1.26

Penafiel

0.98

allows per match

Portimonense

1.44

Penafiel

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Penafiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw

66%

Portimonense or Penafiel

73%

Draw or Penafiel

61%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+

18%

Penafiel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals

74%

Portimonense 2+ goals

38%

Portimonense 3+ goals

15%

Penafiel 1+ goals

70%

Penafiel 2+ goals

34%

Penafiel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)

54%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Penafiel away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.26 + Penafiel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Penafiel attack 0.98 + Portimonense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portimonense scores more

39%

level

27%

Penafiel scores more

34%

Portimonense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Lobato

Portimonense · M

8.3

Match Events

9'

33'

39'

41'

44'

45+2'

45'

46'

46'

C. Duran← M. Dju

62'

S. Lobato↳ D. Grolli

66'

H. Suker← Dani Molina

66'

Davo← J. Silva

70'

73'

78'

78'

78'

B. Pereira← lano Imbene

86'

D. Djassi← Ruan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortimonensePenafiel

Overview

52%Possession48%

23Total Shots10

6Corners6

17Fouls21

Shots

23Total Shots10

7On Target4

11Off Target2

5Blocked4

13Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

342Total Passes311

267Accurate Passes208

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2