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Portimonense vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
1/21/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Portimonense39%
×Draw27%
GIL Vicente34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.17

Portimonense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.03

allows per match

Portimonense
1.31
GIL Vicente
1.46

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
66%
Portimonense or GIL Vicente
73%
Draw or GIL Vicente
61%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
18%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
72%
Portimonense 2+ goals
37%
Portimonense 3+ goals
14%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
69%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
33%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
54%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + GIL Vicente defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

GIL Vicente attack 1.03 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portimonense scores more
39%
level
27%
GIL Vicente scores more
34%

Portimonense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Portimonense 0–2 GIL Vicente

GIL Vicente beat Portimonense 2-0 in Primeira Liga on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.