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Portimonense vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estoril
Estoril
10/30/2022Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Portimonense41%
×Draw26%
Estoril33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.43
Estoril
1.25

Portimonense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 85 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.12
Estoril
1.20

allows per match

Portimonense
1.31
Estoril
1.74

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
67%
Portimonense or Estoril
74%
Draw or Estoril
59%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
20%
Estoril wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
76%
Portimonense 2+ goals
42%
Portimonense 3+ goals
17%
Estoril 1+ goals
71%
Estoril 2+ goals
36%
Estoril 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
56%
Estoril (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

Estoril away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + Estoril defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Estoril attack 1.20 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portimonense scores more
41%
level
26%
Estoril scores more
33%

Portimonense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Portimonense 1–1 Estoril

Portimonense and Estoril drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.