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Portimonense vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
4/14/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 29Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Portimonense41%
×Draw27%
Casa Pia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.37
Casa Pia
1.17

Portimonense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.12
Casa Pia
1.03

allows per match

Portimonense
1.31
Casa Pia
1.61

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
68%
Portimonense or Casa Pia
73%
Draw or Casa Pia
59%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
19%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
75%
Portimonense 2+ goals
40%
Portimonense 3+ goals
16%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
69%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
33%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
56%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Casa Pia attack 1.03 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portimonense scores more
41%
level
27%
Casa Pia scores more
32%

Portimonense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Portimonense 2–2 Casa Pia

Portimonense and Casa Pia drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.