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Portimonense vs Arouca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arouca
Aroucaadvanced
10/18/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portimonense14%
×Draw16%
Arouca70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.17
Arouca
2.77

Arouca creates 137% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.25
Arouca
2.54

allows per match

Portimonense
3.00
Arouca
1.08

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
30%
Portimonense or Arouca
84%
Draw or Arouca
86%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
5%
Arouca wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
69%
Portimonense 2+ goals
33%
Portimonense 3+ goals
11%
Arouca 1+ goals
94%
Arouca 2+ goals
76%
Arouca 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
16%
Arouca (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.25 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arouca attack 2.54 + Portimonense defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Portimonense scores more
14%
level
16%
Arouca scores more
70%

Arouca at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Portimonense 1–2 Arouca

Arouca beat Portimonense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 18, 2025.