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Portimonense U23 vs Leixões U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Portimonense U23
Portimonense U23
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leixões U23
Leixões U23
5/3/2022Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 2Estádio Dois Irmãos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portimonense U2331%
×Draw27%
Leixões U2343%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense U23
1.13
Leixões U23
1.38

Leixões U23 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portimonense U23
1.00
Leixões U23
1.25

allows per match

Portimonense U23
1.50
Leixões U23
1.25

finishing

Portimonense U23+0.00on par
Leixões U23+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense U23 ↓

Leixões U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portimonense U23 or draw
57%
Portimonense U23 or Leixões U23
73%
Draw or Leixões U23
69%

Winning margin

Portimonense U23 wins by 2+
12%
Leixões U23 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Portimonense U23 1+ goals
68%
Portimonense U23 2+ goals
31%
Portimonense U23 3+ goals
11%
Leixões U23 1+ goals
75%
Leixões U23 2+ goals
40%
Leixões U23 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)
42%
Leixões U23 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense U23 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Leixões U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense U23 attack 1.00 + Leixões U23 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Leixões U23 attack 1.25 + Portimonense U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portimonense U23 scores more
31%
level
27%
Leixões U23 scores more
43%

Leixões U23 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leixões U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Portimonense U23 2–0 Leixões U23

Portimonense U23 beat Leixões U23 2-0 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Dois Irmãos in Portimão.