Portimonense U23 1–1 Estoril U23: Result & Stats

Portimonense U23

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Estoril U23

Joao Vitor 79'

F. Aziz 57'

3/23/2026

League #701 · Losers Stage - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portimonense U2346%

×Draw25%

Estoril U2329%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portimonense U23Expected goals in this matchEstoril U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.17

Portimonense U23

1.55

Estoril U23

1.17

Portimonense U23 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Portimonense U23

1.50

Estoril U23

1.20

allows per match

Portimonense U23

1.13

Estoril U23

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portimonense U23+0.00on par

Estoril U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense U23 ↓

Estoril U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portimonense U23 or draw

71%

Portimonense U23 or Estoril U23

75%

Draw or Estoril U23

54%

Winning margin

Portimonense U23 wins by 2+

23%

Estoril U23 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portimonense U23 1+ goals

79%

Portimonense U23 2+ goals

46%

Portimonense U23 3+ goals

20%

Estoril U23 1+ goals

69%

Estoril U23 2+ goals

33%

Estoril U23 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)

62%

Estoril U23 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Estoril U23 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense U23 attack 1.50 + Estoril U23 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Estoril U23 attack 1.20 + Portimonense U23 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portimonense U23 scores more

46%

level

25%

Estoril U23 scores more

29%

Portimonense U23 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portimonense U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

F. Aziz

79'

Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff