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Portimonense U23 vs Estoril U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Portimonense U23
Portimonense U23
FT
2 – 3
Estoril U23
Estoril U23advanced
4/19/2021Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Dois Irmãos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portimonense U2323%
×Draw24%
Estoril U2353%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense U23
1.05
Estoril U23
1.70

Estoril U23 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Portimonense U23
1.00
Estoril U23
1.90

allows per match

Portimonense U23
1.50
Estoril U23
1.10

finishing

Portimonense U23+0.00on par
Estoril U23+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense U23 ↓

Estoril U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portimonense U23 or draw
47%
Portimonense U23 or Estoril U23
76%
Draw or Estoril U23
77%

Winning margin

Portimonense U23 wins by 2+
9%
Estoril U23 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Portimonense U23 1+ goals
65%
Portimonense U23 2+ goals
28%
Portimonense U23 3+ goals
9%
Estoril U23 1+ goals
82%
Estoril U23 2+ goals
51%
Estoril U23 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)
31%
Estoril U23 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense U23 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Estoril U23 away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense U23 attack 1.00 + Estoril U23 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Estoril U23 attack 1.90 + Portimonense U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portimonense U23 scores more
23%
level
24%
Estoril U23 scores more
53%

Estoril U23 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estoril U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Portimonense U23 2–3 Estoril U23

Estoril U23 beat Portimonense U23 3-2 in Taça Revelação U23 on April 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dois Irmãos in Portimão.