Portici 2–2 USD Palmese: Result & Stats

Portici

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

USD Palmese

9/4/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici42%

×Draw25%

USD Palmese33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorticiExpected goals in this matchUSD Palmese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.36

Portici

1.57

USD Palmese

1.36

Portici creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

1.15

1.57

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Portici

1.73

USD Palmese

1.15

allows per match

Portici

1.57

USD Palmese

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portici+0.00on par

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

USD Palmese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portici or draw

67%

Portici or USD Palmese

75%

Draw or USD Palmese

58%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+

21%

USD Palmese wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals

79%

Portici 2+ goals

46%

Portici 3+ goals

21%

USD Palmese 1+ goals

74%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

39%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)

56%

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portici scores more

42%

level

25%

USD Palmese scores more

33%

Portici at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff