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Portici vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tivoli
Tivoli
3/12/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portici43%
×Draw24%
Tivoli33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.66
Tivoli
1.41

Portici creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Portici or draw
67%
Portici or Tivoli
76%
Draw or Tivoli
57%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
22%
Tivoli wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
81%
Portici 2+ goals
49%
Portici 3+ goals
23%
Tivoli 1+ goals
76%
Tivoli 2+ goals
41%
Tivoli 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
57%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portici scores more
43%
level
24%
Tivoli scores more
33%

Portici at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Portici 1–2 Tivoli

Tivoli beat Portici 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro in Portici.