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Portici vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
2 – 2
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
10/27/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 9Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Portici41%
×Draw24%
Team Nuova Florida34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.57
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

Portici creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Portici or draw
66%
Portici or Team Nuova Florida
76%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
59%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
21%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
79%
Portici 2+ goals
46%
Portici 3+ goals
21%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
76%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
41%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
55%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portici scores more
41%
level
24%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
34%

Portici at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portici vs Team Nuova Florida

Portici and Team Nuova Florida drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro (Portici).