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Portici vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
2/12/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 23Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici46%
×Draw24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.72
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.36

Portici creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portici or draw
70%
Portici or Sarrabus Ogliastra
76%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
54%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
82%
Portici 2+ goals
51%
Portici 3+ goals
25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
74%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
39%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
60%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portici scores more
46%
level
24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
30%

Portici at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portici vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Portici beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro in Portici.