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Portici vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
11/13/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 11Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici47%
×Draw24%
Real Monterotondo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.67
Real Monterotondo
1.27

Portici creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portici or draw
71%
Portici or Real Monterotondo
76%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
53%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
25%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
81%
Portici 2+ goals
50%
Portici 3+ goals
23%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
72%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
36%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
62%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portici scores more
47%
level
24%
Real Monterotondo scores more
29%

Portici at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Portici 2–3 Real Monterotondo

Real Monterotondo beat Portici 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro in Portici.