Portici 2–3 Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza: Result & Stats

Portici

FT

2 – 3

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

9/22/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 4Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portici57%

×Draw21%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorticiExpected goals in this matchPro Calcio Tor Sapienza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.17

Portici

2.02

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

1.17

Portici creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.73

creates per match

0.77

1.57

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Portici

1.73

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

0.77

allows per match

Portici

1.57

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portici+0.00on par

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Portici or draw

78%

Portici or Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

79%

Draw or Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

43%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+

34%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals

87%

Portici 2+ goals

60%

Portici 3+ goals

33%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 1+ goals

69%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 2+ goals

33%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)

72%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.02

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza attack 0.77 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portici scores more

57%

level

21%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza scores more

22%

Portici at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff