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Portici vs Paganese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Paganese
Paganese
10/16/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici37%
×Draw25%
Paganese38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.44
Paganese
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Paganese
1.35

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Paganese
1.15

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Paganese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Paganese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portici or draw
62%
Portici or Paganese
75%
Draw or Paganese
63%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
17%
Paganese wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
76%
Portici 2+ goals
42%
Portici 3+ goals
18%
Paganese 1+ goals
77%
Paganese 2+ goals
43%
Paganese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
49%
Paganese (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Paganese away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Paganese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Paganese attack 1.35 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portici scores more
37%
level
25%
Paganese scores more
38%

Paganese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portici vs Paganese

Portici and Paganese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro in Portici.