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Portici vs Città di Anagni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
0 – 2
Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
1/19/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 20Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portici45%
×Draw23%
Città di Anagni32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.75
Città di Anagni
1.44

Portici creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Città di Anagni
1.31

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Città di Anagni
1.77

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Città di Anagni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portici or draw
68%
Portici or Città di Anagni
77%
Draw or Città di Anagni
55%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
24%
Città di Anagni wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
83%
Portici 2+ goals
52%
Portici 3+ goals
25%
Città di Anagni 1+ goals
76%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
42%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
59%
Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portici scores more
45%
level
23%
Città di Anagni scores more
32%

Portici at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portici vs Città di Anagni

Città di Anagni beat Portici 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro (Portici).