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Portici vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
FT
2 – 1
Aprilia
Aprilia
11/24/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 13Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici42%
×Draw25%
Aprilia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.52
Aprilia
1.33

Portici creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Portici or draw
67%
Portici or Aprilia
75%
Draw or Aprilia
58%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
21%
Aprilia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
78%
Portici 2+ goals
45%
Portici 3+ goals
20%
Aprilia 1+ goals
74%
Aprilia 2+ goals
38%
Aprilia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
56%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portici scores more
42%
level
25%
Aprilia scores more
33%

Portici at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portici vs Aprilia

Portici beat Aprilia 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio San Ciro (Portici).