Portici 3–2 Angri Calcio: Result & Stats

Portici

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Angri Calcio

4/30/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 33Stadio San Ciro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portici42%

×Draw24%

Angri Calcio34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorticiExpected goals in this matchAngri Calcio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.46

Portici

1.66

Angri Calcio

1.46

Portici creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

1.73

creates per match

1.35

1.57

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Portici

1.73

Angri Calcio

1.35

allows per match

Portici

1.57

Angri Calcio

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portici+0.00on par

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Angri Calcio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portici or draw

66%

Portici or Angri Calcio

76%

Draw or Angri Calcio

58%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+

22%

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals

81%

Portici 2+ goals

49%

Portici 3+ goals

23%

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

77%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

43%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)

56%

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portici scores more

42%

level

24%

Angri Calcio scores more

34%

Portici at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff