Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portalegrense vs Marinhense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Portalegrense
Portalegrense
FT
0 – 11
Marinhense
Marinhense
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal Portalegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portalegrense1%
×Draw3%
Marinhense96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portalegrense
0.30
Marinhense
4.33

Marinhense creates 1343% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Portalegrense
0.00
Marinhense
3.00

allows per match

Portalegrense
5.67
Marinhense
0.60

finishing

Portalegrense+0.00on par
Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portalegrense ↓

Marinhense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–211%
0–315%
0–417%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (17%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Portalegrense or draw
4%
Portalegrense or Marinhense
97%
Draw or Marinhense
99%

Winning margin

Portalegrense wins by 2+
0%
Marinhense wins by 2+
87%

Team goals

Portalegrense 1+ goals
26%
Portalegrense 2+ goals
4%
Portalegrense 3+ goals
0%
Marinhense 1+ goals
98%
Marinhense 2+ goals
92%
Marinhense 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Portalegrense (draw refunded)
1%
Marinhense (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portalegrense at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

Marinhense away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portalegrense attack 0.00 + Marinhense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.30

Marinhense attack 3.00 + Portalegrense defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Portalegrense scores more
1%
level
3%
Marinhense scores more
96%

Marinhense at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Portalegrense 0–11 Marinhense

Marinhense beat Portalegrense 11-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Portalegre in Portalegre.