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Portalegrense vs Farense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Portalegrense
Portalegrense
FT
0 – 3
Farense
Farense
9/30/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Portalegre (Portalegre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portalegrense2%
×Draw6%
Farense92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portalegrense
0.54
Farense
3.94

Farense creates 630% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Portalegrense
0.00
Farense
2.21

allows per match

Portalegrense
5.67
Farense
1.07

finishing

Portalegrense+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portalegrense ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–210%
0–313%
0–413%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Portalegrense or draw
8%
Portalegrense or Farense
94%
Draw or Farense
98%

Winning margin

Portalegrense wins by 2+
0%
Farense wins by 2+
80%

Team goals

Portalegrense 1+ goals
42%
Portalegrense 2+ goals
10%
Portalegrense 3+ goals
2%
Farense 1+ goals
98%
Farense 2+ goals
89%
Farense 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Portalegrense (draw refunded)
2%
Farense (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portalegrense at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

Farense away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portalegrense attack 0.00 + Farense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.54

Farense attack 2.21 + Portalegrense defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Portalegrense scores more
2%
level
6%
Farense scores more
92%

Farense at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portalegrense vs Farense

Farense beat Portalegrense 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Portalegre (Portalegre).