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Portalban / Gletterens vs Yverdon Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Portalban / Gletterens
Portalban / Gletterens
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
11/12/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Centre Sportif Les Grèves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portalban / Gletterens42%
×Draw23%
Yverdon Sport II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portalban / Gletterens
1.74
Yverdon Sport II
1.57

Portalban / Gletterens creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Portalban / Gletterens
1.45
Yverdon Sport II
1.47

allows per match

Portalban / Gletterens
1.68
Yverdon Sport II
2.03

finishing

Portalban / Gletterens+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portalban / Gletterens ↓

Yverdon Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Portalban / Gletterens or draw
65%
Portalban / Gletterens or Yverdon Sport II
77%
Draw or Yverdon Sport II
58%

Winning margin

Portalban / Gletterens wins by 2+
22%
Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Portalban / Gletterens 1+ goals
82%
Portalban / Gletterens 2+ goals
52%
Portalban / Gletterens 3+ goals
25%
Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
79%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
46%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Portalban / Gletterens (draw refunded)
55%
Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portalban / Gletterens at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.68 · 60 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portalban / Gletterens attack 1.45 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Portalban / Gletterens defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portalban / Gletterens scores more
42%
level
23%
Yverdon Sport II scores more
35%

Portalban / Gletterens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portalban / Gletterens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Portalban / Gletterens 2–2 Yverdon Sport II

Portalban / Gletterens and Yverdon Sport II drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Les Grèves in Portalban.