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Portalban / Gletterens vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Portalban / Gletterens
Portalban / Gletterens
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pully Football
Pully Football
10/29/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Centre Sportif Les Grèves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Portalban / Gletterens50%
×Draw22%
Pully Football28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portalban / Gletterens
1.92
Pully Football
1.40

Portalban / Gletterens creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Portalban / Gletterens
1.45
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Portalban / Gletterens
1.68
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Portalban / Gletterens+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portalban / Gletterens ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Portalban / Gletterens or draw
72%
Portalban / Gletterens or Pully Football
78%
Draw or Pully Football
50%

Winning margin

Portalban / Gletterens wins by 2+
28%
Pully Football wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portalban / Gletterens 1+ goals
85%
Portalban / Gletterens 2+ goals
57%
Portalban / Gletterens 3+ goals
30%
Pully Football 1+ goals
75%
Pully Football 2+ goals
41%
Pully Football 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portalban / Gletterens (draw refunded)
64%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portalban / Gletterens at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.68 · 60 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portalban / Gletterens attack 1.45 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Portalban / Gletterens defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portalban / Gletterens scores more
50%
level
22%
Pully Football scores more
28%

Portalban / Gletterens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portalban / Gletterens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portalban / Gletterens vs Pully Football

Portalban / Gletterens beat Pully Football 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Les Grèves in Portalban.