Portadown 2–0 Linfield: Result & Stats

Portadown

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Linfield

J. Teelan 72'

B. Altintop 55'

10/17/2025

League #408 · Round 12Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Portadown37%

×Draw26%

Linfield36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortadownExpected goals in this matchLinfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.31

Portadown

1.33

Linfield

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Portadown

1.50

Linfield

1.50

allows per match

Portadown

1.13

Linfield

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par

Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Linfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portadown or draw

64%

Portadown or Linfield

74%

Draw or Linfield

63%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+

17%

Linfield wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals

74%

Portadown 2+ goals

38%

Portadown 3+ goals

15%

Linfield 1+ goals

73%

Linfield 2+ goals

38%

Linfield 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)

51%

Linfield (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Linfield away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 1.50 + Linfield defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Linfield attack 1.50 + Portadown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portadown scores more

37%

level

26%

Linfield scores more

36%

Portadown at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Archer← J. Mulgrew

55'

B. Altintop

58'

C. McKee← E. McGee

58'

C. Morrison← I. Baird

60'

67'

67'

72'

86'

R. Minzamba← L. Wilson

88'

B. Quinn← R. Tulloch

90+5'

S. McCullough

Portadown

Linfield

1

Johns

2

Roscoe

7

▼

8

9

15

22

▼

Mulgrew

24

▼

Brown

26

▼

Baird

27

▼

McGee

29

Fitzpatri

4

⚽

13

2

5

1

11

19

⚽

Teelan

26

Thompson

77

▼

Tulloch

6

▼

Wilson

8

Wylie

Manager: N. Currie

86'▲R. Minzamba←▼L. Wilson

88'▲B. Quinn←▼R. Tulloch

Portadown substitutes

12Gibson10Mayse21Minzamba40Moore30Quinn3Rea18Traynor

Manager: David Jonathan Healy

11'▲J. Archer←▼J. Mulgrew

58'▲C. McKee←▼E. McGee

58'▲C. Morrison←▼I. Baird

67'▲M. Yates←▼K. Millar

67'▲S. Taylor←▼S. Brown

Linfield substitutes

51Walsh17McKee20Yates21Archer32Taylor34McCullough38Morrison