Portadown 1–1 Glenavon FC: Result & Stats

Portadown

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Glenavon FC

Ahu Obhakhan 21'

H. Murphy 36'

4/1/2025

League #408 · Relegation Round - 1Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Portadown43%

×Draw26%

Glenavon FC31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortadownExpected goals in this matchGlenavon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Portadown

1.47

Glenavon FC

1.21

Portadown creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.44

creates per match

1.30

1.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Portadown

1.44

Glenavon FC

1.30

allows per match

Portadown

1.11

Glenavon FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Glenavon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portadown or draw

69%

Portadown or Glenavon FC

74%

Draw or Glenavon FC

57%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+

21%

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals

77%

Portadown 2+ goals

43%

Portadown 3+ goals

18%

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

70%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

34%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)

58%

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 1.44 + Glenavon FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Glenavon FC attack 1.30 + Portadown defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portadown scores more

43%

level

26%

Glenavon FC scores more

31%

Portadown at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Ahu Obhakhan

28'

R. Minzamba← G. Thompson

36'

48'

57'

64'

64'

74'

R. Mayse← Ahu Obhakhan

77'

P. McGovern← C. Atherton

79'

J. Teelan← B. Wylie

80'

M. Snoddy

Portadown

Glenavon

13

Byrne

18

McKeown

20

⚽

2

3

10

8

27

17

▼

Atherton

9

▼

22

1

18

11

7

34

26

▼

Thompson

15

▼

Wylie

20

⚽

▼

17

13

24

Manager: N. Currie

28'▲R. Minzamba←▼G. Thompson

74'▲R. Mayse←▼Ahu Obhakhan

79'▲J. Teelan←▼B. Wylie

Portadown substitutes

21Minzamba10Mayse19Teelan4Wilson8McCawl9McElroy28Williamson

Manager: P. McLaughlin

64'▲M. Snoddy←▼D. McDaid

77'▲P. McGovern←▼C. Atherton

Glenavon FC substitutes

7Snoddy29McGovern5Marshall12Ryan15Lynch28Heaney59Wilson