Portadown 0–3 Carrick Rangers: Result & Stats

Portadown

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Carrick Rangers

D. Gibson 37', 12'

A. Lecky 24'

1/31/2026

League #408 · Round 27Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portadown35%

×Draw27%

Carrick Rangers38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortadownExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.25

Portadown

1.19

Carrick Rangers

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Portadown

1.25

Carrick Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Portadown

1.25

Carrick Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portadown or draw

62%

Portadown or Carrick Rangers

73%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

65%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+

15%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals

70%

Portadown 2+ goals

33%

Portadown 3+ goals

12%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

71%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

36%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)

48%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 1.25 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Carrick Rangers attack 1.25 + Portadown defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portadown scores more

35%

level

27%

Carrick Rangers scores more

38%

Carrick Rangers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

24'

37'

46'

46'

R. Tulloch← J. Teelan

51'

P. Heatley

58'

G. Tetteh← J. Ukek

62'

A. Towe← S. McCartan

62'

J. Carson← L. MacKinnon

69'

69'

79'

81'

83'

85'

87'

K. Cherry← M. Snoddy

87'

E. McCawl← J. Crowe

87'

R. Jeffers← P. Heatley

Portadown

Carrick

13

Pengelly

2

Place

4

Burns

9

⚽2

Gibson

10

⚽

▼

Lecky

12

McCulloug

15

Buchanan-

19

▼

Crowe

22

▼

Heatley

24

▼

Snoddy

25

▼

McKay

1

McCarey

4

Altintop

5

▼

MacKinnon

6

Wilson

7

Chapman

9

▼

Ukek

11

McCulloug

12

▼

Gibson

13

Fyfe

19

▼

Teelan

24

▼

McCartan

Manager: Niall Currie

46'▲J. Scott←▼J. Gibson

46'▲R. Tulloch←▼J. Teelan

58'▲G. Tetteh←▼J. Ukek

62'▲A. Towe←▼S. McCartan

62'▲J. Carson←▼L. MacKinnon

Portadown substitutes

40Moore14Tetteh22Scott27Annett28Towe42Carson77Tulloch

Manager: Stephen Baxter

69'▲A. Steele←▼R. McKay

81'▲J. Moore←▼A. Lecky

87'▲K. Cherry←▼M. Snoddy

87'▲E. McCawl←▼J. Crowe

87'▲R. Jeffers←▼P. Heatley

Carrick Rangers substitutes

33Donnelly14Steele20Cherry23Glendinning29McCawl35Jeffers40Moore