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Portadown vs Ballinamallard United — League #407 2026

Portadown
Portadown
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
R. Mayse 90+4'
K. Kane 46'
9/23/2023League #407League #407 · Round 8Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Portadown52%
×Draw22%
Ballinamallard United26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portadown
1.94
Ballinamallard United
1.32

Portadown creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Portadown
2.54
Ballinamallard United
1.50

allows per match

Portadown
1.15
Ballinamallard United
1.33

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par
Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Ballinamallard United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Portadown or draw
74%
Portadown or Ballinamallard United
78%
Draw or Ballinamallard United
48%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+
30%
Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals
86%
Portadown 2+ goals
58%
Portadown 3+ goals
30%
Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
73%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
38%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)
66%
Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 2.54 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ballinamallard United attack 1.50 + Portadown defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portadown scores more
52%
level
22%
Ballinamallard United scores more
26%

Portadown at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
K. Kane
90+4'
R. Mayse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portadown vs Ballinamallard United

Portadown beat Ballinamallard United 2-0 in League #407 on September 23, 2023.

Goals: K. Kane (46'), R. Mayse (90+4').

The match was played at Shamrock Park in Portadown.