Port Vale 0–3 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Stockport County

J. Diamond 29'

K. Wootton 23'

N. Lowe 13'

10/27/2025

League One · Round 14Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Port Vale33%

×Draw27%

Stockport County40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Port Vale

1.17

Stockport County

1.31

Stockport County creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

0.96

creates per match

1.38

1.24

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Port Vale

0.96

Stockport County

1.38

allows per match

Port Vale

1.24

Stockport County

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

60%

Port Vale or Stockport County

73%

Draw or Stockport County

67%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Stockport County wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

69%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Stockport County 1+ goals

73%

Stockport County 2+ goals

38%

Stockport County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

45%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Stockport County defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stockport County attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Port Vale scores more

33%

level

27%

Stockport County scores more

40%

Stockport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Diamond

Stockport County · F

8.3

Match Events

13'

N. Lowe↳ T. Onyango

23'

K. Wootton↳ J. Diamond

29'

J. Diamond↳ B. Osborn

40'

Nathan Lowe

51'

J. Stockley← G. Byers

60'

C. Camps← J. Diamond

60'

B. Andresson← N. Lowe

68'

R. Curtis← Kyle John

78'

O. Moxon← O. Bailey

82'

G. Hall← R. Croasdale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortStockport

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots17

4Corners5

8Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

1On Target6

3Off Target6

5Blocked5

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

387Total Passes427

287Accurate Passes335

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1