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Port Vale vs Sheffield Wednesday — League One 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
10/1/2022League OneLeague One · Round 12Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Port Vale31%
×Draw28%
Sheffield Wednesday42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.06
Sheffield Wednesday
1.29

Sheffield Wednesday creates 22% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 50 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.97
Sheffield Wednesday
1.30

allows per match

Port Vale
1.29
Sheffield Wednesday
1.16

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
58%
Port Vale or Sheffield Wednesday
72%
Draw or Sheffield Wednesday
69%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
12%
Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
65%
Port Vale 2+ goals
29%
Port Vale 3+ goals
9%
Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
72%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
37%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
42%
Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.97 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Port Vale scores more
31%
level
28%
Sheffield Wednesday scores more
42%

Sheffield Wednesday at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Port Vale 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.