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Port Vale vs Reading — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reading
Reading
B. Garrity 72'
8/12/2023League OneLeague One · Round 2Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Port Vale34%
×Draw27%
Reading39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.17
Reading
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Reading
1.29

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Reading
1.38

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
61%
Port Vale or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
66%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
14%
Reading wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
69%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%
Reading 1+ goals
72%
Reading 2+ goals
36%
Reading 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%
Reading (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Reading away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Reading defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Reading attack 1.29 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
34%
level
27%
Reading scores more
39%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
B. GarrityPort ValePort Vale · F
8.2

Match Events

45+6'
Andy Carroll
57'
C. Vickers← K. Ehibhatiomhan
64'
M. Clark← T. Sang
64'
J. Plant← E. Chislett
67'
L. Wing← C. Savage
67'
Mamadi Camará← O. Azeez
67'
M. Carson← N. Guinness-Walker
72'
B. Garrity
76'
Lewis Wing
76'
J. Wilson← Joshua Thomas
76'
G. Massey← C. Grant
87'
H. Dean← S. Hutchinson
90+3'
L. Cass← O. Arblaster

Possession

38%Port

Shots

17Port

Pass accuracy

47%Port

Statistics

PortReading
Overview
38%Possession62%
17Total Shots9
5Corners2
7Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots9
3On Target1
9Off Target5
5Blocked3
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
331Total Passes547
227Accurate Passes434
69%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Reading

Port Vale beat Reading 1-0 in League One on August 12, 2023.

Goals: B. Garrity (72').

Reading controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.