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Port Vale vs Newport County — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
15:00
Newport County
Newport County
11/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Vale Park
53%
Port Vale
model favours
53%24%22%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale53%
×Draw24%
Newport County22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.69
Newport County
1.00

Port Vale creates 69% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.57
Newport County
1.04

allows per match

Port Vale
0.96
Newport County
1.81

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
78%
Port Vale or Newport County
76%
Draw or Newport County
47%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
29%
Newport County wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
82%
Port Vale 2+ goals
50%
Port Vale 3+ goals
24%
Newport County 1+ goals
63%
Newport County 2+ goals
26%
Newport County 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
71%
Newport County (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.57 + Newport County defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Newport County attack 1.04 + Port Vale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port Vale scores more
53%
level
24%
Newport County scores more
22%

Port Vale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Port Vale and Newport County have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Port Vale
Balanced
Newport County
Balanced
50%Possession47%
66%Pass accuracy67%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap10.6
—xG0.90
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Port ValeNewport County

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
County
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Port Vale host Newport County

November 28, 2026: Port Vale take on Newport County in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Port Vale host Newport County at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.