Newport County 1–4 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Port Vale

A. Wildig 24'

L. Tolaj 54'

E. Chislett 48'

J. Stockley 36', 6'

9/7/2024

League Two · Round 5Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Newport County29%

×Draw26%

Port Vale46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.50

Newport County

1.13

Port Vale

1.50

Port Vale creates 33% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.06

creates per match

1.42

1.58

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Newport County

1.06

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Newport County

1.58

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

54%

Newport County or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

71%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

11%

Port Vale wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

68%

Newport County 2+ goals

31%

Newport County 3+ goals

11%

Port Vale 1+ goals

78%

Port Vale 2+ goals

44%

Port Vale 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

38%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.06 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Newport County defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newport County scores more

29%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

46%

Port Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Tolaj

Port Vale · M

9.3

Match Events

6'

Nelson Sanca← S. McLoughlin

6'

J. Stockley↳ B. Baker-Boaitey

24'

A. Wildig↳ A. Glennon

35'

Anthony Driscoll-Glennon

36'

J. Stockley↳ L. Tolaj

37'

Brandon Cover

48'

E. Chislett↳ L. Tolaj

50'

Cameron Evans

54'

Kyle Jameson

54'

L. Tolaj↳ K. John

57'

R. Richards← B. Baker-Boaitey

58'

Ciaran Brennan

64'

K. Evans← C. Antwi

64'

K. Hudlin← C. Baker-Richardson

67'

Kyle Jameson

67'

Kyle Jameson

68'

J. Lowe← G. Byers

69'

O. Greaves← B. Kamwa

69'

T. Sang← B. Cover

75'

R. Paton← E. Chislett

75'

A. Hackford← J. Stockley

85'

Aaron Wildig

90+8'

Antwoine Hackford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportPort

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots24

0Corners7

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots24

3On Target7

2Off Target11

4Blocked6

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box11

Passing

37%Possession63%

300Total Passes504

218Accurate Passes434

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

4Offsides0