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Port Vale vs Luton — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Luton
Luton
B. Waine 29'
N. Wells 5'
2/28/2026League OneLeague One · Round 35Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Port Vale32%
×Draw28%
Luton41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.10
Luton
1.28

Luton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.82
Luton
1.35

allows per match

Port Vale
1.21
Luton
1.39

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
59%
Port Vale or Luton
72%
Draw or Luton
68%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
13%
Luton wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%
Luton 1+ goals
72%
Luton 2+ goals
37%
Luton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
44%
Luton (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Luton away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Luton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

Luton attack 1.35 + Port Vale defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Vale scores more
32%
level
28%
Luton scores more
41%

Luton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
B. WainePort ValePort Vale · F
8.2

Match Events

5'
N. Wells↳ E. Lawrence
6'
George Hall
22'
Joseph Johnson
25'
Cameron Humphreys
29'
B. Waine↳ G. Hall
40'
Jordan Clark
43'
Kal Naismith
61'
K. Palmer← J. Richards
61'
A. Al Hamadi← N. Wells
66'
A. Gray← J. Stockley
71'
D. van den Berg← L. Walsh
77'
J. Shipley← R. Walters
78'
M. Sherif← G. Hall
80'
S. Morris← I. Jones
81'
H. Odoffin← N. Lonwijk
87'
Ben Waine

Possession

40%Port

Shots

12Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortLuton
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots12
1.55Expected Goals (xG)2.34
6Corners6
21Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots12
5On Target5
2Off Target3
5Blocked4
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
274Total Passes425
182Accurate Passes322
66%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
21Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Luton

Port Vale and Luton drew 1-1 in League One on February 28, 2026.

Goals: N. Wells (5'), B. Waine (29').

Luton controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.