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Port Vale vs Derby — League One 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
1/24/2023League OneLeague One · Round 26Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Port Vale27%
×Draw28%
Derby45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.97
Derby
1.34

Derby creates 38% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 46 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.97
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Port Vale
1.29
Derby
0.98

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
55%
Port Vale or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
73%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
10%
Derby wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%
Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
37%
Derby (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.97 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Derby attack 1.39 + Port Vale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Port Vale scores more
27%
level
28%
Derby scores more
45%

Derby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Port Vale 1–2 Derby

Derby beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on January 24, 2023.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.