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Port Vale vs Crewe — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
14:00
Crewe
Crewe
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Vale Park
42%
Port Vale
model favours
42%28%30%

Crewe score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Port Vale42%
×Draw28%
Crewe30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.28
Crewe
1.05

Port Vale creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.36
Crewe
1.29

allows per match

Port Vale
0.82
Crewe
1.20

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
70%
Port Vale or Crewe
72%
Draw or Crewe
58%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
19%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
37%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Crewe 1+ goals
65%
Crewe 2+ goals
28%
Crewe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
58%
Crewe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.36 + Crewe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Crewe attack 1.29 + Port Vale defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Port Vale scores more
42%
level
28%
Crewe scores more
30%

Port Vale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • 46% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Port Vale
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
50%Possession50%
66%Pass accuracy70%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap11.0
—xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Port ValeCrewe

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Port Vale
2
Draws
0
Crewe
Avg goals: 1BTTS: 25%
1–01–11–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
Crewe
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Vale vs Crewe — Match Preview

Port Vale face Crewe on August 29, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Port Vale host Crewe at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.