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Crewe vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
J. Stockley 86'
3/29/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Crewe36%
×Draw26%
Port Vale38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.29
Port Vale
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.40
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Crewe
1.26
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
62%
Crewe or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
48%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.40 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Crewe defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crewe scores more
36%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
38%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. StockleyPort ValePort Vale · F
8.0

Match Events

27'
M. Sanders← J. Tabiner
42'
Mitchell Clark
46'
Mickey Demetriou
51'
Zac Williams
59'
Matúš Holíček
69'
Max Sanders
71'
R. Richards← R. Walters
72'
Thomas Sang
76'
J. Lankester← C. Long
83'
J. Shorrock← T. Sang
86'
J. Stockley
88'
R. Cooney← L. Billington
89'
O. Bogle← Z. Williams
89'
R. Curtis← L. Tolaj
90+3'
Jack Shorrock

Possession

62%Crewe

Shots

15Crewe

Pass accuracy

55%Crewe

Statistics

CrewePort
Overview
62%Possession38%
15Total Shots17
6Corners4
12Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots17
3On Target4
7Off Target6
5Blocked7
9Inside Box13
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
350Total Passes209
247Accurate Passes119
71%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Crewe vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Crewe 1-0 in League Two on March 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Stockley (86').

Crewe controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.