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Port Vale vs Chesterfield — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
14:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Vale Park
39%
Port Vale
model favours
39%27%34%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Port Vale39%
×Draw27%
Chesterfield34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.31
Chesterfield
1.19

Port Vale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.38
Chesterfield
1.46

allows per match

Port Vale
0.92
Chesterfield
1.25

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
66%
Port Vale or Chesterfield
73%
Draw or Chesterfield
61%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
18%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
73%
Port Vale 2+ goals
38%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
70%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
33%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chesterfield attack 1.46 + Port Vale defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
39%
level
27%
Chesterfield scores more
34%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Port Vale and Chesterfield have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Port Vale
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
50%PossessionBiggest gap61%
66%Pass accuracy80%
12.4Shots11.5
—xG1.26
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Port ValeChesterfield

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Vale vs Chesterfield — Match Preview

Port Vale face Chesterfield on October 17, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Port Vale host Chesterfield at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.