Chesterfield 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

A. Dobra 76'

J. Stockley 2'

1/25/2025

League Two · Round 28SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Chesterfield41%

×Draw26%

Port Vale33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Chesterfield

1.39

Port Vale

1.21

Chesterfield creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.42

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.59

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.00

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

67%

Chesterfield or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

59%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

19%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

75%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

40%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

70%

Port Vale 2+ goals

34%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

56%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.59 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Chesterfield defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chesterfield scores more

41%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

33%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Dobra

Chesterfield · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

J. Stockley↳ L. Tolaj

21'

Rekeem Harper

45'

Ryan Croasdale

46'

R. Sheckleford← J. Donacien

51'

Mitchell Clark

64'

T. Sang← K. John

70'

P. Madden← R. Colclough

76'

A. Dobra

85'

J. Metcalfe← D. Oldaker

85'

K. Drummond← A. Pepple

90+1'

Connor Hall

90+2'

B. Horton← J. Sparkes

90+3'

R. Curtis← J. Stockley

90+3'

G. Byers← R. Harper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldPort

Overview

75%Possession25%

17Total Shots6

6Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target3

4Off Target2

8Blocked1

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

529Total Passes171

447Accurate Passes88

84%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides4