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Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
C. Legrand 47'
4/11/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Port Melbourne26%
×Draw23%
Melbourne Srbija51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Melbourne
1.21
Melbourne Srbija
1.79

Melbourne Srbija creates 48% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Port Melbourne
0.90
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

Port Melbourne
2.20
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw
49%
Port Melbourne or Melbourne Srbija
77%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
74%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+
10%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals
70%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
34%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
12%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
53%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
34%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 0.90 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Port Melbourne defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Port Melbourne scores more
26%
level
23%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
51%

Melbourne Srbija at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
C. Legrand
50'
T. Lakic
Port
Melbourne
A. Piddick
Manager: A. Piddick
Z. Popovic
Manager: Z. Popovic

Match Recap: Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Srbija

Port Melbourne beat Melbourne Srbija 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: C. Legrand (47').