Port Melbourne 2–1 Manningham United Blues

Port Melbourne

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manningham United Blues

4/25/2026

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Port Melbourne29%

×Draw22%

Manningham United Blues49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port MelbourneExpected goals in this matchManningham United Blues

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.96

Port Melbourne

1.48

Manningham United Blues

1.96

Manningham United Blues creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 55 away

0.90

creates per match

1.71

2.20

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Port Melbourne

0.90

Manningham United Blues

1.71

allows per match

Port Melbourne

2.20

Manningham United Blues

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

Manningham United Blues →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw

51%

Port Melbourne or Manningham United Blues

78%

Draw or Manningham United Blues

71%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

13%

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

77%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

43%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

19%

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals

86%

Manningham United Blues 2+ goals

58%

Manningham United Blues 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

38%

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 0.90 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Manningham United Blues attack 1.71 + Port Melbourne defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Port Melbourne scores more

29%

level

22%

Manningham United Blues scores more

49%

Manningham United Blues at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manningham United Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff