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Port Melbourne vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avondale
Avondale
5/23/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 15SS Anderson Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Port Melbourne31%
×Draw23%
Avondale46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Melbourne
1.40
Avondale
1.75

Avondale creates 25% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 87 away

creates per match

Port Melbourne
1.62
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

Port Melbourne
1.27
Avondale
1.17

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw
54%
Port Melbourne or Avondale
77%
Draw or Avondale
69%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+
14%
Avondale wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals
75%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
41%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
17%
Avondale 1+ goals
83%
Avondale 2+ goals
52%
Avondale 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
40%
Avondale (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 1.62 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Avondale attack 2.22 + Port Melbourne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Melbourne scores more
31%
level
23%
Avondale scores more
46%

Avondale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Port Melbourne 0–1 Avondale

Avondale beat Port Melbourne 1-0 in Victoria NPL on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at SS Anderson Reserve in Melbourne.