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Port FC vs PTT Rayong — FA Cup 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
5 – 0
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
7/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Port FC77%
×Draw14%
PTT Rayong9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
2.96
PTT Rayong
0.96

Port FC creates 208% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Port FC
3.25
PTT Rayong
1.00

allows per match

Port FC
0.92
PTT Rayong
2.67

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
91%
Port FC or PTT Rayong
86%
Draw or PTT Rayong
23%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
57%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
95%
Port FC 2+ goals
79%
Port FC 3+ goals
55%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
62%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
25%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
89%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 3.25 + PTT Rayong defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.96

PTT Rayong attack 1.00 + Port FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Port FC scores more
77%
level
14%
PTT Rayong scores more
9%

Port FC at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port FC vs PTT Rayong

Port FC beat PTT Rayong 5-0 in FA Cup on July 4, 2018.