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Port FC vs Persib Bandung — AFC Cup 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Persib Bandung
Persib Bandung
11/28/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC28%
×Draw22%
Persib Bandung50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.43
Persib Bandung
1.98

Persib Bandung creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Persib Bandung
1.71

allows per match

Port FC
2.25
Persib Bandung
1.86

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Persib Bandung+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Persib Bandung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
50%
Port FC or Persib Bandung
78%
Draw or Persib Bandung
72%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
12%
Persib Bandung wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
76%
Port FC 2+ goals
42%
Port FC 3+ goals
17%
Persib Bandung 1+ goals
86%
Persib Bandung 2+ goals
59%
Persib Bandung 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
36%
Persib Bandung (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Persib Bandung away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Persib Bandung defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Persib Bandung attack 1.71 + Port FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Port FC scores more
28%
level
22%
Persib Bandung scores more
50%

Persib Bandung at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Persib Bandung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port FC vs Persib Bandung

Port FC and Persib Bandung drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.