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Port FC vs Khon Kaen United — League Cup 2021

Port FC
Port FCadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
2/26/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16PAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Port FC78%
×Draw12%
Khon Kaen United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
3.30
Khon Kaen United
1.10

Port FC creates 200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Port FC
4.00
Khon Kaen United
1.20

allows per match

Port FC
1.00
Khon Kaen United
2.60

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
91%
Port FC or Khon Kaen United
88%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
22%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
60%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
96%
Port FC 2+ goals
83%
Port FC 3+ goals
62%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
67%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
30%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
89%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 4.00 + Khon Kaen United defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.30

Khon Kaen United attack 1.20 + Port FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Port FC scores more
78%
level
12%
Khon Kaen United scores more
9%

Port FC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port FC vs Khon Kaen United

Port FC beat Khon Kaen United 3-2 in League Cup on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at PAT Stadium in Bangkok.