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Port FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Cup 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motorsadvanced
2/13/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Round of 16BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC16%
×Draw18%
Jeonbuk Motors66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors
2.42

Jeonbuk Motors creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Jeonbuk Motors
2.60

allows per match

Port FC
2.25
Jeonbuk Motors
1.20

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
34%
Port FC or Jeonbuk Motors
82%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
84%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
6%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
67%
Port FC 2+ goals
30%
Port FC 3+ goals
10%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
91%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
69%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
19%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.60 + Port FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Port FC scores more
16%
level
18%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
66%

Jeonbuk Motors at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Port FC 0–4 Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Port FC 4-0 in AFC Cup on February 13, 2025.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.