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Port FC vs Ceres — AFC Champions League 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
1/21/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundPAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC64%
×Draw20%
Ceres16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
2.15
Ceres
0.97

Port FC creates 122% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Ceres
0.70

allows per match

Port FC
1.25
Ceres
3.30

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
84%
Port FC or Ceres
80%
Draw or Ceres
36%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
40%
Ceres wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
88%
Port FC 2+ goals
63%
Port FC 3+ goals
36%
Ceres 1+ goals
62%
Ceres 2+ goals
25%
Ceres 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
80%
Ceres (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ceres away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Ceres defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ceres attack 0.70 + Port FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Port FC scores more
64%
level
20%
Ceres scores more
16%

Port FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port FC vs Ceres

Ceres beat Port FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on January 21, 2020.

The match was played at PAT Stadium in Bangkok.