Port FC vs BG Pathum United — League #296 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Port FC44%
BG Pathum United28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Port FC creates 34% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Port FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Port FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches
BG Pathum United away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Port FC attack 1.33 + BG Pathum United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27
BG Pathum United attack 0.96 + Port FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Port FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
BG Pathum United substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Ratchaburi
Lamphun WarriorBG Pathum United
Buriram United
Rayong FC
Prachuap
Chiangrai United
Chonburi FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Uthai Thani
Bangkok United
Sukhothai FC
Muangthong UnitedPort FC
Ayutthaya FC
KanchanaburiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Port FC host BG Pathum United on Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #296 2026/2027 season.
Port FC 0 – 0 BG Pathum United
Port FC and BG Pathum United drew 0-0 in League #296 on April 19, 2026.
The match was played at PAT Stadium in Bangkok.