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Port City vs Okwawu — Division One League 2025

Port City
Port City
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Okwawu
Okwawu
4/5/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Port City58%
×Draw25%
Okwawu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port City
1.63
Okwawu
0.77

Port City creates 112% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Port City
1.73
Okwawu
0.93

allows per match

Port City
0.60
Okwawu
1.53

finishing

Port City+0.00on par
Okwawu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port City ↓

Okwawu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port City or draw
82%
Port City or Okwawu
75%
Draw or Okwawu
42%

Winning margin

Port City wins by 2+
32%
Okwawu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Port City 1+ goals
80%
Port City 2+ goals
48%
Port City 3+ goals
22%
Okwawu 1+ goals
54%
Okwawu 2+ goals
18%
Okwawu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Port City (draw refunded)
77%
Okwawu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port City at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Okwawu away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port City attack 1.73 + Okwawu defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Okwawu attack 0.93 + Port City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Port City scores more
58%
level
25%
Okwawu scores more
18%

Port City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Port City 4–2 Okwawu

Port City beat Okwawu 4-2 in Division One League on April 5, 2026.