Port City 1–0 Golden Warriors: Result & Stats

Port City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Golden Warriors

10/11/2025

Division One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Port City53%

×Draw25%

Golden Warriors21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port CityExpected goals in this matchGolden Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.90

Port City

1.58

Golden Warriors

0.90

Port City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.73

creates per match

1.19

0.60

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Port City

1.73

Golden Warriors

1.19

allows per match

Port City

0.60

Golden Warriors

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port City+0.00on par

Golden Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port City ↓

Golden Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port City or draw

79%

Port City or Golden Warriors

75%

Draw or Golden Warriors

47%

Winning margin

Port City wins by 2+

28%

Golden Warriors wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Port City 1+ goals

79%

Port City 2+ goals

47%

Port City 3+ goals

21%

Golden Warriors 1+ goals

59%

Golden Warriors 2+ goals

23%

Golden Warriors 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Port City (draw refunded)

71%

Golden Warriors (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port City at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Golden Warriors away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port City attack 1.73 + Golden Warriors defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Golden Warriors attack 1.19 + Port City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port City scores more

53%

level

25%

Golden Warriors scores more

21%

Port City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff