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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Playford City Patriots — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
0 – 1
Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
5/28/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 12Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates25%
×Draw21%
Playford City Patriots54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.40
Playford City Patriots
2.12

Playford City Patriots creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Playford City Patriots
1.87

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Playford City Patriots
1.48

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Playford City Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
46%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Playford City Patriots
79%
Draw or Playford City Patriots
75%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
11%
Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
75%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
41%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
17%
Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
88%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
62%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
32%
Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
25%
level
21%
Playford City Patriots scores more
54%

Playford City Patriots at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Port Adelaide Pirates 0–1 Playford City Patriots

Playford City Patriots beat Port Adelaide Pirates 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.